Analysis: Modern Sports League Expansions

Recent developments in two different professional leagues—including the buzz of the Oakland Athletics possibly relocating to Las Vegas and the MLS awarding an expansion franchise to San Diego to begin play in 2025—prompted me to want to better understand how different leagues have each pursued growth. This is also very compelling as a lesson in sports management for me, as I am involved with my local San Diego Growlers; a team established in 2016 that plays in the budding American Ultimate Disc League, or AUDL.

There seems to be clear evidence that pro leagues strive to achieve about 30-32 teams in total. As I found when compiling data for this post, the big three (NFL, MLB and NBA) predominantly grew quickly throughout the 1960s and early seventies, before economic woes (a period dubbed the Great Inflation) slowed the trend. By the time the 90s came around, leagues resumed aggressive growth until each league reached a stabilizing point of 30-32 teams, where they’ve remained for the last 20+ years (despite relocations since then). Commissioner Adam Silver recently hinted that the expansion of the NBA will soon follow the next media rights deal, which is expected to happen in 2024.¹

So I wanted to dig a little deeper into the history of expansion and relocation, and compare the path taken by the MLS since it operates quite differently from the big three; MLS teams are not independently owned members of the league, rather they are owned by the league. This presents a neat case study of sorts, since the incentives for growth are similar, though decision-making may function far differently from those that exist in the other leagues.

A historical breakdown

Each league has its unique history, some of which date back more than a hundred years and frequently merged with rival leagues before forming the entities we know today. To wrangle the data and try to make sense of the early years (before 1960) of each league would be challenging with little payoff.

To save me time and frame my research with better context, I begin my timeline in the year 1960:

Notable is the growth rate for MLS maintained, almost since its inception (it doesn’t hurt to host the World Cup in 1994). Aside from a brief contraction in the late 90s, the MLS has maintained a growth rate that matches (or beats) any period by the Big Three. In the ten years from 2004 to 2014, the MLS nearly doubled in size from 10 to 19 teams. The NBA is the only league to outpace this growth; between 1965 and 1976, the league grew from just eight teams to twenty-two, but this was in part due to the merger with the ABA, which brought four teams including the Denver Nuggets (s/o for snapping a 46-year championship drought 🏆).

For MLS, their growth seems to necessitate expanding into new markets rather than relocating existing teams. But in 2005, the San Jose Earthquakes were put on hiatus because they failed to secure a soccer-specific stadium. Much of the league’s early teams were able to share American football stadiums, but to secure its future, MLS has increased requirements for new teams each year.²

Sustainable Growth

The Big Three featured a balanced mix of relocations and expansions in the 1960s, but the NBA stand-alone for continuing into the 1970s, which included merging with the ABA in 1976. Interestingly, the NBA has had the most evenly distributed growth in the last few decades and currently contains 30 teams.

The MLB, meanwhile—also at 30 teams—saw almost no movement until the mid-1990s, and has seen the least movement in the last few decades; the Montreal Expos relocated to become the Washington Nationals in 2005. The NFL, by contrast, was the first to reach 28 teams (in 1976) and features the most relocations since then, amassing 10 total with three in the last few years: STL 👉 LA; SD 👉 LA; and OAK 👉 LAS.

As a quick sidebar, it’s worth mentioning the recent bombshell news that the PGA and rival upstart LIV Golf will merge after more than a year of passionate disagreement on how to grow professional golf. This story is still developing, but this is the first major sports league merger I can remember, and not unlike some of the Big Three’s early days. Take basketball, for example:

• The Basketball Association of America (BAA) launches in 1946 and merged with the National Basketball League (NBL) after 3 seasons to form the NBA.
• The American Basketball League (ABL) launches in 1961 and folds after a season and a half yet their innovation of the 3-point line lives on.
• The American Basketball Association (ABA) launches in 1967, merging with NBA in 1976.

Hallmarks of the rival leagues seeking to disrupt the NBA were rule modifications and conscientious distinctions in gameplay style. Sound familiar? Though professional golf has a history as long as any of the Big Three leagues, comparing it might be challenging, I digress. Below is a reflection of how each league has expanded or relocated teams throughout the last 60+ years:

Relocations and Frustrations

The other interesting observation in this historical data was so many cities in small(er) markets secured teams ahead of presumptive larger markets. For example, The New Orleans Jazz relocated to Salt Lake City in 1979—the first professional team to land there. Estimates I could find report the Salt Lake City metro area with a population of about half a million in 1979. Today it’s more than doubled, but still ranks around 40th in the US.

In 2005, Salt Lake received another pro team when MLS expanded there and neither team has relocated since its inception. This is a stark contrast to San Diego’s history with professional teams:

• Chargers (NFL) relocate from LA in 1961, returning to LA in 2016
• Rockets (NBA) enfranchise in 1967, relocating to Houston in 1971
• Braves (NBA) relocate from Buffalo in 1978, rename to the Clippers, and move to LA in 1984
• Padres (MLB) enfranchise in 1969, and thankfully are still here! 🤞

The Chargers relocation(s) are ironic, insofar as they didn’t move very far, but their move back to Los Angeles meant losing me as a fan. Save for a handful of other relocations this is one of the shortest relocation journeys.³ This has me a smidge bitter about how frivolous some franchises can be with relocating. Part of me wonders if there are corollaries between winning championships and retaining teams (the San Diego Chargers have zero championships if you’re keeping track). Or maybe relocating can catalyze on-field success… table these considerations for a sequel to this post.

But most likely, relocating is about increasing a team’s value, above all else. Below I have mapped all the relocations for all four leagues since 1960:

Warning: contains forward-looking statements

As I’ve already disclosed my Padres season ticket membership in a previous post, I’ll be quite excited to learn more about season tickets for San Diego’s yet-to-be-named MLS team in a couple of years. In full disclosure, my optimism is in part due to the prevalence of soccer in pop culture with feel-good shows like Ted Lasso and Welcome to Wrexham.⁴

Another thing I was surprised to learn is that the MLS is already quite mature concerning its playoff format—expanded for 2023—which now features 18 teams, up from twelve. The Big 3 have each expanded their regular season or playoff format in recent years, so this is in line with expectations. Why not make the whole plane season out of the black box playoffs? 🙄

Will San Diego ever be blessed with yet another NBA team? I can only dream and hope that HBO and Adam McKay will team up on the docu-drama series to tell the story. I can’t help yearning to reminisce about the days when San Diego won its first major championship…

Scary is the number of failed or stalled MLS expansion efforts, which number more than eight in the last 20 years. If anyone knows where I can place a wager on this spiraling into a San Diego Special, I wouldn’t mind hedging against a spoiler. Or maybe a better bet is the over/under on what number of teams the NFL will grow to within my lifetime. Maybe 39.5? In the meantime, I’ll continue delving through data⁵ looking for explanations as to why America’s finest city is so lacking in the championships department.